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Monday, 31 December 2012
The Year in Review ? Favorite gadgets of The Gadgeteer team in 2012
2012 was a busy year for The Gadgeteer. We published a total of 2006 articles of which 411 were reviews. That is a lot of product reviews my friends. The bulk of that work would NOT have been possible without my hardworking gadget crazed team of writers. We all thought it would be interesting to [...]
Wall St Week Ahead: Cliff may be a fear, but debt ceiling scarier
By Ryan Vlastelica and Edward Krudy and Doris Frankel
Dec 30 (Reuters) - Investors fearing a stock market plunge -if the United States tumbles off the "fiscal cliff" this week -may want to relax.
But they should be scared if a few weeks later, Washington fails to reach a deal to increase the nation's debt ceiling because that raises the threat of a default, another credit downgrade and a panic in the financial markets.
Market strategists say that while falling off the cliff for any lengthy period - which would lead to automatic tax increases and stiff cuts in government spending - would badly hurt both consumer and business confidence, it would take some time for the U.S. economy to slide into recession. In the meantime, there would be plenty of chances for lawmakers to make amends by reversing some of the effects.
That has been reflected in a U.S. stock market that has still not shown signs of melting down. Instead, it has drifted lower and become more volatile.
In some ways, that has let Washington off the hook. In the past, a plunge in stock prices forced the hand of Congress, such as in the middle of the financial crisis in 2008.
"If this thing continues for a bit longer and the result is you get a U.S. debt downgrade ... the risk is not that you lose 2-1/2 percent, the risk is that you lose 10-1/2," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS Equity Research, in New York.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the United States will technically reach its debt limit at the end of the year.?
INVESTORS WARY OF JANUARY
The White House has said it will not negotiate the debt ceiling as in 2011, when the fight over what was once a procedural matter preceded the first-ever downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. But it may be forced into such a battle again. A repeat of that war is most worrisome for markets.
Stock markets posted several days of sharp losses in the period surrounding the debt ceiling fight in 2011. Even after a bill to increase the ceiling had passed, stocks plunged in what was seen as a vote of "no confidence" in Washington's ability to function, considering how close lawmakers came to a default.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. sovereign rating to "AA-plus," citing Washington's legislative problems as one reason for the downgrade from "AAA" status. The benchmark S&P 500 dropped 16 percent in a four-week period ending Aug. 21, 2011.
"I think there will be a tremendous fight between Democrats and Republicans about the debt ceiling," said Jon Najarian, a co-founder of online brokerage TradeMonster.com, in Chicago.
"I think that is the biggest risk to the downside in January for the market and the U.S. economy."
There are some signs in the options market that investors are starting to eye the January period with more wariness. The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, the market's preferred indicator of anxiety, has remained at relatively low levels throughout this process, although on Thursday, it edged above 20 for the first time since July.
More notable is the action in VIX futures markets, which shows a sharper increase in expected volatility in January than in later-dated contracts. January VIX futures are up nearly 23 percent in the last seven trading days, compared with a 13 percent increase in March futures and an 8 percent increase in May futures. That is a sign of increasing near-term worry among market participants.
The CBOE Volatility Index closed on Friday at 22.72, gaining nearly 17 percent to end at its highest level since June as details emerged of a meeting on Friday afternoon of President Barack Obama with Senate and House leaders from both parties where the president offered proposals similar to those already rejected by Republicans. Stocks slid in late trading and equity futures continued that slide after cash markets closed.
"I was stunned Obama didn't have another plan, and that's absolutely why we sold off," said Mike Shea, a managing partner and trader at Direct Access Partners LLC, in New York.
Obama offered hope for a last-minute agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff after a meeting with congressional leaders, although he scolded Congress for leaving the problem unresolved until the 11th hour.
"The hour for immediate action is here," he told reporters at a White House briefing. "I'm modestly optimistic that an agreement can be achieved."
The U.S. House of Representatives is set to convene on Sunday and continue working through the New Year's Day holiday.
Obama has proposed maintaining current tax rates for all but the highest earners.?
Consumers do not appear at all traumatized by the fiscal cliff talks - yet. Helping to bolster consumer confidence has been a steady recovery in the housing market and growth in the labor market, albeit slow.
The latest take on employment will be out on Friday, when the U.S. Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show jobs growth of 145,000 for December, in line with recent growth.
Consumers will see their paychecks affected if lawmakers cannot broker a deal and tax rates rise, but the effect on spending is likely to be gradual.??
PLAYING DEFENSE
Options strategists have noted an increase in positions to guard against weakness in defense stocks such as General Dynamics because those stocks would be affected by spending cuts set for that sector. Notably, though, the PHLX Defense Index is less than 1 percent away from an all-time high reached on Dec. 20.
This underscores the view taken by most investors and strategists: One way or another, Washington will come to an agreement to offset some effects of the cliff. The result will not be entirely satisfying, but it will be enough to satisfy investors.
"Expectations are pretty low at this point, and yet the equity market hasn't reacted," said Carmine Grigoli, chief U.S. investment strategist at Mizuho Securities USA, in New York. "You're not going to see the markets react to anything with more than a 5 (percent) to 7 percent correction."
Save for a brief 3.6 percent drop in equity futures late on the evening of Dec. 20, after House Speaker John Boehner had to cancel a scheduled vote on a tax-increase bill due to lack of Republican support, markets have not shown the same kind of volatility as in 2008 or 2011.
A gradual decline remains possible, Golub said, if business and consumer confidence keep taking a hit on the back of fiscal cliff worries. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell sharply in December, a drop blamed in part on the fiscal issues.
"If Congress came out and said that everything is off the table, yeah, that would be a short-term shock to the market, but that's not likely," said Richard Weiss, a Mountain View, California-based senior money manager at American Century Investments.
"Things will be resolved, just maybe not on a good timetable. All else being equal, we see any further decline as a buying opportunity."?
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: david.gaffen(at)thomsonreuters.com)?
(Reporting by Edward Krudy and Ryan Vlastelica in New York and Doris Frankel in Chicago; Writing by David Gaffen; Editing by Martin Howell, Steve Orlofsky, Jan Paschal and Maureen Bavdek)
? 2011 Reuters
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Source: http://feeds.vision.org/~r/NewsFromReuters/~3/9d5GXX8RijE/article.aspx
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Case McCoy: Realistic Expectations for Texas Longhorns QB in 2013
Things can't get much worse for Texas quarterback Case McCoy, on the field or off of it.?
Four weeks after throwing two interceptions against Kansas State in a losing effort in his only start of 2012, the junior signal-caller was sent home one day before the Longhorn's Valero Alamo Bowl matchup with Oregon State in San Antonio, along with linebacker Jordan Hicks for violating team rules according to an ESPN.com report.
Head coach Mack Brown stated the following on Friday (via ESPN.com):
This has been reported: We had a couple young men that broke team rules last night. They have been suspended from the team and they will be sent home. They will not be available for the game and I will not address any more questions in that matter.
That same ESPN.com report stated that KENS-TV in San Antonio quoted local police as saying that a pair of Longhorns players were being investigated for an alleged sexual assault that took place early Friday morning. However, no charges had been filed at the time of the report.
For now, we can only speculate on McCoy's football future. Although McCoy's future in Austin is uncertain for the time being, we'll assume he returns for his senior season with Texas.
In that case, here's what Longhorns fans can expect from the younger McCoy brother in 2013.
Sophomore quarterback David Ash, who played much of this season for the Longhorns and who will play Saturday against Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl, will be back as a junior in 2013, which means that McCoy will likely be relegated to a backup role if he's back with the team.
McCoy is used to that role, but as a senior looking to boost his draft stock it may be tough to swallow.
But like the past two seasons in Austin, injuries and quarterback changes will happen, and when they do McCoy will provide the Longhorns with a serviceable option. I wouldn't bet on him to throw for more than 1,000 yards in 2013 though.
McCoy is an awkward situation heading into his senior season. He doesn't have the credentials that his older brother did coming out of college, and that will surely hurt his chances at making the cut for the NFL.
Will Case McCoy play his senior season at Texas?
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Yes
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No
Will Case McCoy play his senior season at Texas?
His lack of solid decision-making under center has held him back with Texas, and will likely turn out to the weakness that keeps him from achieving future success in the sport.
McCoy's four interceptions against Baylor as a sophomore highlighted his occasional poor judgment on the field. And his recent suspension signals that he is not yet ready become the sort of leader a quarterback at Texas must be.
If Case McCoy is back in Austin in 2013 for his senior season, expectations will and should be low.
At this point in time, McCoy looks to be nothing more than a quality backup for a power conference college football team.
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Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter.?
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